Why do you want to attack a territory? (quick 2 min survey!)

Game of universal domination. New dice available free upon request.
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Sophrosyne
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Why do you want to attack a territory? (quick 2 min survey!)

Post by Sophrosyne » Fri Nov 19, 2010 6:18 pm

Hey hey,

I'd like to conduct a survey, to those who are interested (ideally everyone, I didn't want to copy this thread but I would like a more general opinion), about why they would want to attack a territory.

There are many factors for me to consider, but it helps me to narrow it down to a hypothetical situation where only your attacking territory is considered and we look at a defending territory and its neighbours. Also, please ignore any diplomacy with other players and continents. Only consider the battle between you and the defender.
Here's a short list of defending territory attributes, which you can give a score out of 10; (Copy and paste and rate) 10 being the most likely deciding factor, 1 being the least likely deciding factor. If you are not sure what to put just write BORING.



How many armies are in the defending territory?
How many neighbours (any adjacent territories) to the defending territory are there?
How many of the defending territory's neighbours are enemies?
How many armies do the enemy neighbours have?
How many armies does an enemy neighbour have on average?
How many armies does the neighbour with the largest number of armies have?
Do I expected to lose more armies than the defender in the attack?

How many armies does my attacking territory have?
How many neighbours does my attacking territory have?
How many enemy neighbours does my attacking territory have?
What is the average number of armies of the enemy neighbours of my attacking territory?
What is the largest number of armies in an enemy neighbour of my attacking army?


If there are aspects of attacking a territory, regardless of continents/diplomacy, please write them down at the end of the list with your rating :D

Anxiously awaiting your opinions!

Sophro
Last edited by Sophrosyne on Sun Nov 21, 2010 4:49 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Sophrosyne
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Post by Sophrosyne » Fri Nov 19, 2010 6:43 pm

I'll fire it off:

How many armies are in the defending territory? 8
How many neighbours (any adjacent territories) to the defending territory are there? 6
How many of the defending territory's neighbours are enemies? 7
How many armies do the enemy neighbours have? 5
How many armies does an enemy neighbour have on average? 5
How many armies does the neighbour with the largest number of armies have? 6
Do I expected to lose more armies than the defender in the attack? 8

How many armies does my attacking territory have? 9
How many neighbours does my attacking territory have? 7
How many enemy neighbours does my attacking territory have? 9
What is the average armies of the enemy neighbours of my attacking territory? 6
What is the largest number of armies in an enemy neighbour of my attacking army? 9

BDF
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Post by BDF » Fri Nov 19, 2010 10:53 pm

How many armies are in the defending territory? 9
How many neighbours (any adjacent territories) to the defending territory are there? 5
How many of the defending territory's neighbours are enemies? BORING (they are all enemies, no?, it's not usually a team game)
How many armies do the enemy neighbours have? 7
How many armies does an enemy neighbour have on average? 5
How many armies does the neighbour with the largest number of armies have? 7
Do I expected to lose more armies than the defender in the attack? 5 (this depends on luck with dices, however, there is a trend that the larger the numbers of armies attacking each other, the more advantage attacking dice have) (perhaps you mean this question as a percentage of your armies, and enemy's armies, pls clarify)

How many armies does my attacking territory have? 10
How many neighbours does my attacking territory have? 6
How many enemy neighbours does my attacking territory have? BORING (yet again, Im not sure what you mean, everyone's a potential enemy, unless it's an established and agreed team game)
What is the average armies of the enemy neighbours of my attacking territory? 7
What is the largest number of armies in an enemy neighbour of my attacking army? 8

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Post by jesterme » Fri Nov 19, 2010 11:44 pm

You might want to "weight" these responses. My win percentage should be taken into consideration when evaluating how "good" my answers are...

How many armies are in the defending territory? 8
How many neighbours (any adjacent territories) to the defending territory are there? 3
How many of the defending territory's neighbours are enemies? 6
How many armies do the enemy neighbours have? 6
How many armies does an enemy neighbour have on average? 3
How many armies does the neighbour with the largest number of armies have? 8
Do I expected to lose more armies than the defender in the attack? 5

How many armies does my attacking territory have? 8
How many neighbours does my attacking territory have? 8
How many enemy neighbours does my attacking territory have? 7
What is the average armies of the enemy neighbours of my attacking territory? 6
What is the largest number of armies in an enemy neighbour of my attacking army? 7

FWIW

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Sophrosyne
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Post by Sophrosyne » Sat Nov 20, 2010 10:35 am

Do I expected to lose more armies than the defender in the attack?
Damn that's a really annoying typo to spot! :x

What I meant by the question is whether people make a guess or try to work out how many armies they will lose in the battle compared with how many the defender will lose, which may affect their decision to attack.
How many of the defending territory's neighbours are enemies? BORING (they are all enemies, no?, it's not usually a team game)
Some of the neighbouring territories could be your own. (Sorry, by neighbour I just mean any territory that is next to it regardless of whether you own it or another player does).

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Sophrosyne
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Post by Sophrosyne » Sat Nov 20, 2010 10:37 am

You might want to "weight" these responses.
Good idea!

BDF
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Post by BDF » Sat Nov 20, 2010 5:32 pm

Sophrosyne wrote:
Do I expected to lose more armies than the defender in the attack?
Damn that's a really annoying typo to spot! :x

What I meant by the question is whether people make a guess or try to work out how many armies they will lose in the battle compared with how many the defender will lose, which may affect their decision to attack.
How many of the defending territory's neighbours are enemies? BORING (they are all enemies, no?, it's not usually a team game)
Some of the neighbouring territories could be your own. (Sorry, by neighbour I just mean any territory that is next to it regardless of whether you own it or another player does).
Well like I said about losing more armies than the defender, that purely depends on dice. It's random. I'll say it again tho... there IS a trend that the larger the numbers of armies on the board, the more advantageous it is to attack. For example:

If 8 armies hit 10 armies, they are almost certain to lose.
If 8 million armies hit 10 million armies, they are pretty likely to win actually. I'd recommend that you run some experiments on this yourself and get more accurate data. Mine are just examples.

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Sophrosyne
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Post by Sophrosyne » Sun Nov 21, 2010 3:09 pm

Expected losses for the attacker and the defender can be calculated, such as in your example for 8 armies against 10: the expected losses for the attacker is 6.55 while the expected losses for the defender is 7.10 with a success chance of 38% (assuming that you continue to attack until either side has run out of armies). The 'expectation' of losing an army is just based on the probabilities of the dice.

If you run simulations of risk battles with 8 attackers and 10 defenders and average the results, they will converge to these numbers the more simulations you run.

Obviously noone wants to calculate the exact expected losses every time, but I was wondering if people care about the losses of either side and what sort of short hand estimations they might use.

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dollabillz
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Post by dollabillz » Sun Nov 21, 2010 7:27 pm

i'm 25 and what is this

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Post by BDF » Mon Nov 22, 2010 8:36 am

I think another idea you might wana incoorporate Sophrosyne, is the player turn sequence. It can play and important part in games in several ways.

Example 1:
4 players have been killed in BIO. The two left are green and red. However, officially green's turn comes before red's. BIO tends to have a 30% bonus increase every round, so.... every round, green would get 30% more armies relative to the continents that player holds.
The strategy evolving around that... is that if a couple of rounds ago red had a chance to kill blue (who might have been after red in the turn sequence), and a chance to kill green, it would have been wiser to kill green instead (of course the number of cards comes into play, no. of armies etc), because it would meen red would get that 30% extra income every round over blue, instead of green getting 30% extra over red.
On maps with a smaller % increase, this would matter less, but 30% in BIO is significant and following this strategy would play its part.
This example would apply more to a scenario when continent values outnumber card values, so it becomes more of an income game.

Example 2:
6 players playing the Rome map. If you have two players, one just before your turn, and one just after your turn, it would be on average wiser to hit the one just before your turn. Here are the reasons:
1. Four other players have to make their moves first, and are likely to take advantage of the weakened opposition in the meanitme
2. If the player you just hit choses to retaliate, your turn is immediately after his, so you get a chance to consolidate your armies after the attack and make you less vulnerable to other players
3. The player you just hit has his turn immediately before you, so, he gets a card just before your turn (unless he turtles of course). That means you are the only one who can tap the most cards out of the player you just hit. In more detail: If he has 2 cards before his turn, and 3 cards after, with your turn straight after his... you get a shot at taking those 3 cards before anyone else.
Of course, taking all that into account, appropriate defensive positions have to be adopted to defend from another player who is immediately after you in the turn sequence.


I hope this is somehow helpfull. Let me know if you don't understand something. I tend to be more responsive via private messages though because they are relayed to my emails.

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