Sillysoft Forums

paranoiarodeo · Posted: Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:34 pm Post subject:

✱ New RAW formula next week: +89 / +26 / +7 / -9 / -25 / -38 / 0.86 ✱

Between now and Sunday night, you will see alternate results like above in game chat. The last number is a "RAW Multiplier" that varies based on map, settings, and the number of humans playing. Six human Classic is the benchmark with 1.0. Biodeux is less, and Rome is more. The beta formula isn't final yet. I'm gonna be adjusting the multipliers as I analyze more results this weekend. The middle ranks are a little rigid, and I might loosen those up for excitement's sake. However, not winning or losing too much for those middle ranks is probably a good thing, and I'll wait a week or two before changing my mind. Same goes for three and four bot games. I might need to dial down those multipliers eventually. Early in the week, I suspect humans could win too many points, until the bot scores settle into a natural (lower) place. But who knows? RAW 2.0 might eliminate weekly RAW resets forever, but I'll save that discussion for later.

Please: If you see anything that looks outta whack, then lemme know ASAP. Thanks!

WhirlPlaid · Posted: Fri Aug 17, 2012 5:40 pm Post subject: New raw.

paranoiarodeo · Posted: Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:01 pm Post subject:

(The MOTW bonus has been cut in half, but it applies to first, second, and third place again, not just first.)

paranoiarodeo · Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2012 1:04 am Post subject:

12. OLD: Bot game formulas compared.

Just a couple of quick notes about the old bot game formula.

First, in two bot games, you literally can't win any points from players ranked lower than you. If you're the highest score in the game, ahead of all bots and your one human opponent, then you're boned. You can only lose RAW, and seeing as how most bots are ranked significantly lower than humans, you're likely to lose the max 10% for sixth and maybe fifth too. Three human games are nearly as punitive. (If you ever wanted to know why I invented that 4+ autorank thingy for my hosts, then now you know.)

Second, I set the scale of this graph wider than before. 750 points ahead or behind another player is quite a big spread, e.g.: 1250 versus 500. We don't see as much of that nowadays, but a few years ago, when the MOTW bonus was catapulting RAW to absurd highs, it wasn't all that uncommon. Anyways, what you should notice is how one player outta the norm can have a huge impact on your score, positive or negative. (Keep an eye on the shrinking rectangle in the center. Basically, players in that area are considered roughly equal. That's how you get those normal +90 wins in Classic or +73 in Biodeux.) Sure, there are max win and loss caps in the old formula, but they're applied after all opponent scores are combined. There are no constraints placed upon individual anomalies. Again, this is why you'd expect to lose a max 10% for sixth place when four of your opponents were equally high ranked, but the fifth was way down below. Conversely, that's also why you see large jumps for first, second, or third, when most players are hovering around 500 points, but one or two high ranked players risked their RAW, and lost.

Mumps · Disease of Lux Joined: 13 Oct 2010 Posts: 301 Location: Oz

AquaRegia · Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:51 am Post subject:

Look at Mumps getting all red Sharpie!

∞ AquaRegia approves ∞

paranoiarodeo · Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2012 4:40 pm Post subject:

Since I've kept an eye on the new numbers for 24 hours, then I've gotta say I'm really stoked about next week.

(Plenty of work and changes still ahead, but I think this is gonna be an awesome first step.)

paranoiarodeo · Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2012 7:20 pm Post subject:

12. NEW: Bot game formulas compared.

(Presented without comment.)

paranoiarodeo · Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2012 7:41 pm Post subject:

Also: Two weeks of RAW 1.5. No changes (1.6) until September 2.

(Buckle up! Enjoy the ride!)

Baden · Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2012 8:16 pm Post subject:

I just trust Para.

His commitment is amazing. So please don't crucify him if the system is eventually not perfect from start. It sounds good and I am optimistic. Some fine tuning may be done if necessary.

This new system might be a milestone after many futile discussions about the raw-formula in the past.

dollabillz · Lux Troll Joined: 03 Feb 2009 Posts: 1044

3DA · Posted: Sun Aug 19, 2012 5:44 pm Post subject:

∞ 3DA digs this under-the-hood upgrade thing. ∞

paranoiarodeo · Posted: Sun Aug 19, 2012 6:19 pm Post subject:

Everything's fine now. My apologies for the false start.

(Seven butchered games, but I may recalc those and cascade the changes forward.)

∞ paranoiarodeo glas ∞

paranoiarodeo · Posted: Sun Aug 19, 2012 7:35 pm Post subject:

If you want to see how RAW 1.5 works, then please review recent scores:

http://sillysoft.net/lux/rankings/recent/

paranoiarodeo · Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:43 am Post subject:

13. Monday Morning Update

First: I'm gonna rerun the numbers overnight, and they're gonna look a little different on Wednesday morning. Nothing major. I added one or two little tweaks to my formula at the last minute, but I kinda regret them now. I'm kinda working at cross-purposes right now, 'cause I wanna eliminate weekly resets by Luxtoberfest, but some of the my ideas for "persistent rankings" don't fit so well with weekly sprints. I'm gonna try to find a middle ground in the short term.

Second: Kill bonuses! They aren't in the formula yet, but they will be soon. Maybe in two weeks, but definitely within four. Also, lemme share some terribly good news, especially for a stat geek like me. It turns out that dustin has kinda been collecting kill data for years. It's jumbled up along with some other bits and bytes, and it's sorta imperfect, but once I've had time to clean it up, and sort it out, and shove it into a new database, then it's gonna be a freakin' gold mine for my new system. My "RAW Multipliers" for bot games, and different map / settings combinations, will be much, much more accurate. Also, it'll settle a long standing debate about which Luxers have had the most single round quad and quint kills.

Third: I've got a few tricks up my sleeve for presenting past game results, and some new web pages too, so keep your eyes open for links in chat throughout the week!

Wink

The Silken Knot · Lux Bartendress Joined: 22 Jun 2008 Posts: 3871

Thank you. You stat geek. Razz

Stelee · Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:49 pm Post subject:

Llux Llama · Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:35 pm Post subject:

Maybe you should also emphasize that "Kill Bonuses" are only awarded if you also WIN the game.

You know.

For we bio players. Otherwise you'll get such gems as

"why did you just play for 3rd"
"I wanted the Kill Bonus"

Razz

paranoiarodeo · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:22 pm Post subject:

RAW 1.51 is kinda sorta in place, but I haven't recalc'd the previous games yet. That'll happen sometime between now and tomorrow morning. I may wait until everyone's offline and there are no games in progress, but maybe not. Short term, the bot scores won't crater like they had already. The middle ranks are a little looser, so expect a little more up and down there. And I've tweaked human scoring so folks under 500 will receive some upward support.

∞ paranoiarodeo wipes off his wrench ∞

paranoiarodeo · Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:20 pm Post subject:

∞ paranoiarodeo woohoos ∞

Okay, I've updated the leaderboard, and all games this week, including those that get skipped over and mangled. Game results as seen on player pages have been updated too. Everything's in its right place. Should be perfectly smooth sailing from here on out. Also, I'll be creating a custom leaderboard that shows the games played counts and winning percentages for all players this week only, so keep an eye on chat results for a link!

Wink

Matt_Leaf · Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:26 pm Post subject:

The Silken Knot · Lux Bartendress Joined: 22 Jun 2008 Posts: 3871

paranoiarodeo · Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:54 pm Post subject:

14. Sticky RAW.

If you change aliases, then your old RAW now carries over to the next name. Why? Simple: 95% of name changes result in a player dropping back down to 500 points, then his opponents win less and lose more then they should, 'cause his score has become artificially low. This change eliminates that old quirk of the old formula. Short-term, however, the seedings are still calculated by name, so if you wanna keep a good seed, then remember to switch back to your primary alias before the weekly reset.

(Please, folks, don't go too crazy with alias swapping.)

Llux Llama · Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:16 pm Post subject:

MUAHAHAHAHAH
HAHAHAHAH

HA

I have just one words for you, paranoiarodeo

PYROLLAMA

Matt_Leaf · Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:26 pm Post subject:

So as long as our last game played for the week is with our "main" alias then our seed will be updated? Or do we just have to connect to the server with it?

paranoiarodeo · Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:27 pm Post subject:

(Gotta play. Weekend seed calc uses your last played alias name.)

paranoiarodeo · Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:55 pm Post subject:

Soooo? Feedback please. What do y'all think? Be honest, please.

(I know it's still early, but c'mon, yea or nay?)

General K · Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:19 am Post subject:

I would give much more to the winner, to encourage playing for 1st.
other than that it looks great, specially that 6th and 5th are close in raw lost so it reduced the drama.

thanks for the effort and dedication big kahuna... wub ya!

Mumps · Disease of Lux Joined: 13 Oct 2010 Posts: 301 Location: Oz

Sooooooooooo technically. If you played with one alias all week, then swapped, you could win a "week" playing one game ... Shocked

Altogether great work though para. A nice and clean near perfect system Very Happy

∞ Mumps blows out the cobwebs ∞